MEDICANES

Understanding medicane-related risks improves our knowledge of their impacts and helps enhance the resilience and preparedness of communities across the Mediterranean region. Phase 2 of the MEDICANES project addresses this challenge head-on by developing an integrated framework that connects EO-based medicane observations to quantitative, spatially explicit impact and risks indicators. This new work builds on the achievements of the core project while extending its scope through the integration of social and economic assets. In this way, it supports the transition from hazard-based to impact-based forecasting — a paradigm shift promoted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that shifts the focus of predictions from what the weather will be to what the weather will do.

An Integrated Workflow: From EO Data to Risk Information

Within the MEDICANES project, we follow a systematic framework that transforms raw satellite data into actionable risk information, with each step building on the previous one. This framework begins with the collection and processing of Earth Observation (EO) data, which are used to detect, monitor and characterise medicane-related hazards. The resulting hazard information is then combined with high-resolution socioeconomic datasets to identify exposed and vulnerability information understanding where medicane-related hazards may lead to significant consequences. In this way, the workflow connects physical hazard characterisation with spatially explicit impact and risk indicators, providing information that can support preparedness, resilience planning and the transition towards impact-based forecasting.

EO-Based Hazard Detection and Characterisation

The first pillar of the work builds a harmonised, multi-source EO dataset repository, integrating data from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS), the data reanalysis, the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS), and modelling high-resolution products . These datasets feed into:

Socioeconomic Exposure and Vulnerability

EO-derived hazard footprints are then combined with high-resolution socioeconomic datasets to understand who and what is at risk.

Exposure consisted in analysing the number of population, infrastructure, and economic indicators located within hazard-prone areas. In this part, socioeconomic high-resolution datasets will be allocated into detailed socioeconomic sectors using land use layers developed on the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service. This allows exposed elements to be identified, classified, and quantified consistently across the Mediterranean region.

Vulnerability introduces the social and economic dimensions that determine how severely exposed systems are affected. In this case, a Mediterranean-wide adaptation of the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) developed by Cutter et al (2003) is used, incorporating indicators of age, income, health and service accessibility, education, and labour-market characteristics. Sector-specific vulnerability layers are also developed for transport, energy, and tourism.

Impact Quantification and Multi-Hazard Risk Analysis

EO-derived hazard footprints developed on this work are then combined with high-resolution socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability datasets outputs. This will allow to develop geospatial impact maps, statistical summaries, and key risk indicator for understanding the risk of these extreme cyclonic systems in the Mediterranean basin, translating hazard intensity into expected damage or impact.

This proposed risk assessment workflow will be integrated into CLIMADA, which provides impact modelling for risk assessment. The diagram below summarises how the three components described above — hazard characterisation, exposure and vulnerability assessment, and impact quantification — are combined into a coherent risk assessment framework, where CLIMADA acting as the central modelling engine.

Medicane Impact Viewer (MIV) — Coming Soon