MEDICANES

A key challenge in Mediterranean cyclone research is translating scientific understanding into information that decision-makers can act upon. Phase 2 of the MEDICANES project addresses this challenge head-on by developing an integrated framework that connects EO-based medicane observations to quantitative, spatially explicit impact indicators. This work supports the transition from hazard-based to impact-based forecasting — a paradigm shift proposed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that shifts the focus of predictions from what the weather will be to what the weather will do.

An Integrated Workflow: From EO Data to Risk Information

The framework follows a systematic chain from raw satellite data to actionable risk metrics. Each step builds on the previous, ensuring that hazard characterisation, exposure mapping, and vulnerability modelling are fully consistent with one another.

EO-Based Hazard Detection and Characterisation

The first pillar of the work builds a harmonised, multi-source EO dataset repository, integrating data from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS), the ERA5 reanalysis, and the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) . These datasets feed into:

Socioeconomic Exposure and Vulnerability

EO-derived hazard footprints are then combined with high-resolution socioeconomic datasets to understand who and what is at risk. Exposure layers cover population distribution, critical infrastructure, land use, and economic activity.

Vulnerability is assessed using a Mediterranean-wide adaptation of the Cutter Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), incorporating indicators of age, income, health and service accessibility, education, and labour-market characteristics — all standardised and mapped at high spatial resolution. Sector-specific vulnerability layers are developed for transport networks, energy infrastructure, and the tourism sector. All vulnerability information is integrated into the open-source CLIMADA modelling platform, ensuring full reproducibility and alignment with international best practices.

Impact Quantification and Multi-Hazard Risk Analysis

Using the CLIMADA Impact module, the project estimates economic losses, infrastructure disruptions, and population exposure for ten historical medicane events spanning 1995–2023: Celeno, Cornelia, Zeo, Maria, Trixie, Numa, Zorbas, Ianos, Apollo, and Daniel. Key metrics include:

Preliminary Results

A first analysis of the ten case studies focuses on precipitation exposure in Greece. For each event, the project measures how much of the country experienced rainfall intense enough to be considered exceptional for that location and season — a threshold that, if exceeded widely, signals elevated risk of flooding and infrastructure damage.

The results show that most medicanes have a limited footprint: in 7 out of 10 events, fewer than one in ten Greeks lived in areas that recorded such exceptional rainfall. Only two events — Apollo and Daniel — produced rainfall so extreme that it was virtually unprecedented for those areas, affecting large parts of the country simultaneously. Mainland regions were consistently more exposed than islands.

This finding has a direct practical implication: not all medicanes are equally dangerous, and impact assessment must be event-specific rather than based on averages. The cross-event comparative analysis planned for the full set of case studies will map these differences systematically across the Mediterranean, providing a clearer picture of where and when medicane impacts are most severe.

The Full Risk Assessment Framework

The diagram below summarises how the three pillars described above — hazard characterisation, exposure and vulnerability assessment, and impact quantification — are integrated into a single, coherent risk assessment framework, with CLIMADA as the modelling engine at its centre.

Medicane Impact Viewer (MIV) — Coming Soon